Is Pakistan depending toomuch on China for diplomacy against US and India

These are hard days for Pakistan. Threats are there not only from outside but also from inside. Currently Pakistan is not finding a way out of its problems, the more it tries to come out, more it get into it. Pressure is not only from extremists but also from US, that is perusing its so called "war on Terror".But if you see the problems Pakistan is facing, in light of their long term policies then you will find that what is happening today inside Pakistan is the most possible outcome that one could have thought. They have always follow the path of Islamic Extremism since they consider it the main principle behind which their nation came into existence. Islamic fundamentalist are given the due respect within Pakistan but that's not the problem, the contentious issue is when they try to define there rules for the common masses who are busy struggling for their daily livelihood. Pakistan has always wasted there precious resources in maintaining the hostility against the Indians. In the name of Kashmir freedom , they have wasted so many life's, killed so many innocents. and still that war is on. 

                                            India says that whenever any international conference happens, Pakistan raises Kashmir as an issue, but i say " Pakistan is not raising Kashmir, instead its surviving on Kashmir. Billions of dollar that it receives from fellow Islamic states in the name of Kashmir freedom by attributing it to the Islamic cause, actually takes care of their daily bread and butter. Indians understand this very well that even  if resolution of Kashmir is reached , they will come up with some different issue to main this hostility in turn to maintain their supply lines. Their inability to fight a direct war with India has left them to go the "nowadays conventional" way of Jehad. Pakistan has given all support to let these forces grow within there territory. And this support is coming directly from the government institutions like the army and there secret services ISI. US also knows about this strong bonding and relationship between these  institutions, and it's trying it level best to build pressure on government to stop this evil support, but expert believe that this is never going to happen. Many believe pak government may try to showoff that it's doing much on its part to curb them, but thats just a namesake to continue to get wide aid from the international community in the name of money required to fight Taliban, but people Know where that money is actually going, they buy heavy weapons which are not worth to be used against the moderately armed Taliban but are more India specific. One will really call it a stupidity or ignorance of a Pakistani government which dont have even money to pay for there weekly  imports(balance of payment) but is still continuing to fund its India specific more than half a million army . They don't have resource to remain competitive against Indias for long but because of the wrong guidance in the name of  support they are getting from china, have made Pakistan chosen the wrong path. 

                                          Talking about their Western front with India first, this can be called their main center of attention. All policies they make in their governance are somehow related to there objectives on the western front. They always feel threatened with India. You can call the comparative big size of India and its resources or the long history of hostility than exist between the two countries way back from 1947 partition that always make Pakistan uncomforatble. Pakistan has been trying since many years to out power India in development and prosperity but now after struggling for so many years they have now realized thats not possible since the rate at which India is growing in development is unachievable with its given resources. The type of support that Pakistan used to get in the US-USSR cold war from US is also fading as India has changed it position from a pure pro USSR to the friend of all type. Also the support it used to have from different countries in the cold war arena when it was a strong US ally is also diminishing. Countries are neglecting Pakistan to get closer to the fast developing India. Pakistan no more have sympathies with the US nor with NATO nations, they simply want to come out of this relationship but are not getting the way out. US on the other side is there another headache, first there war in Afghanistan and now in Pakistan territory, though the war is against the extremist Taliban , but anyway they are Pakistanis only. Pakistan is becoming extremely uncomfortable to make their people calm about the drones attacks which US has been doing. Those drones attack are not at all achieving any thing except alienating few more extremists who later joined there so called jihad. US thinks just by giving some dollars Pakistan will be able to go against their people. Pakistan also understand that what it means to say "no" to US . I still remembered the days when US came looking for afghans and they asked Pakistan's Pervej Musharraf whether they want to be a US ally on global war on Terror or Just want to be on the receiving end. Surely they didn't have the guts nor the power to say no to US.

                                         But these days, china has come into the picture in a very big way. China is a developing country, Though they have not achieved much and their development have just started to take some shape,  they have started building their military army to challenge the leadership of US. In the process they have soured there relations with half of the world, and they think they alone will take on the whole world. Even the US which is still the most powerful and will remain so for at least the next 15 years, never came across anybody all alone. China looks India as a potential adversary in the future. They both have fought war over their border dispute, which actually doesn't exist but is just the conception of china policy. Currently India rules the Indian ocean with its blue water navy having aircraft carriers and Submarines, and china understand very well that they require secure routes to the gulf and African nations for their future oil and material supply chains and its India only that comes in that way, so they have started building strong relations with the neighbors of India as a way of encirclement of  India. Pakistan is just that neighbor which also maintain hostility with India thus providing a perfect match for them. China has started helping Pakistan in a big way with weapons and strategy against India. After Mumbai attacks, Pakistan was very submissive and on the back foot when India was making hugh cry to the world. Then Pakistani minister made a hurried visit to china and upon his return whole posture of Pakistan has changed, probably china guided them to talk tough with India even when that doesn't suite them given there ability are  best known to Indians. But any how that position helped Pakistan to relieve the pressure which India built. China has suggested the similar thing against the  US also, you might have seen how the Pakistan minister talked tough with the US defense minister in the press conference recently. That was a huge shock to the US, and they also understand very well that this voice doesn't belong to Pakistan, it has got the backing of someone. Probably, new strategy might have started shaping up in the white house to deal with this new scenario. Lets wait and watch what will be the next move from both side. 

What do you feel about China helping Pakistan is just to curb there common enemy or there is some big though process from China to take on multiple target with a single shot. 

Thanks 

Prashant Singhal

Why Rafale has the best chance in MMRCA deal.

Is the pride of french people at stake for there very own fighter Rafale, probably yes because the way it was conceived and developed itself shows how french were emotional about it. french people are considered one of the best designers of architecture and they have got there own test for which they feel proud also. Other call this as there arrogance. When Euro fighter was perceived, France was a major partner in the collaborative effort between 4 European countries. France wanted to play the role of major airframe designer and wanted many things in there own way. They are simply to possessive about it. They wanted to make a design which can function simultaneously both from land as well as sea for which other were not interested. They simply pulled out of the collaboration and decided to go on there own. A sort of natural competition therefore came into picture as they now have to prove all alone that there thing is better than Euro fighter. French worked very harder to came out with a very fine piece of bird and so does the Euro fighter. But that possessiveness about there design has costed a lot to the France. They spend nearly more than $30bn in its development. Though Eurofighter is almost double the cost but that cost is share among various participants of the contract. With more collaboration and joint effort, Eurofighter definitely have edge over Rafale but that edge is not very vast and is something that can be bridged with more investment. That further investment in R&D was perceived to be taken up with the money earned from the exports and that changed the whole game plan.

Till today , Rafale is not able to sell even one aircraft as export order which has hindered its future development. The people involved are very much frustrated as after putting so much effort ,there work is not yet acclaimed. Though there is nothing wrong in the design but you can simply call a bad luck as whenever a contract is there to grab , rafale easily make it to the last round but then beyond technology , political things also come into picture where US simply leads the pact. Due to lack of order , manufacturing is also slow and in few years will eventually dry up . The cost is also therefore very high per unit since "volume of scale" are missing . Currently many deals are in the pipeline and rafale is there in all as a final contestant.France is pushing very hard to get something out of it since there investment  and pride are at stake. 

Now why Rafale is the most probable contestant for the much awaited, hyped and long lasting 126 fighter MMRCA contract. 

1. India is very happy with there existing Mirage 2000.

2.They need a plane which can be inducted as soon as possible since there exiting squadron fleet is depleting very rapidly and have reached an alarming level. Since rafale does not have any order , they will be able to fulfill India's requirement easily which is major drawback with other as they already have deliveries schedule for the existing orders.

3. India need full Transfer of technology which is only met by non US participant, and out of them rafale is ready to go most farthest level of sharing along with source code. 

4. Since rafale is a france completely own effort with no US based component, effect of sanctions and restriction is not there. Thus making it a more strategic choice apart from tactical one.

5. It has some of the most advanced sensors and equipment on board like spectra ,Aesa etc but the main thing is we will be getting the technology transfer from them also which no body except Mig-35 is ready to deliver, But then Mig-35 Zhuk still in development and Gripen no where near to a working radar of its own , rafale seems to be a best tactical choice since that come with a more mature and tested thing . If US government get ready to remove bar on technology transfer for Aesa, then probably the whole game can change but as of now that doesnt seems to be the case. 

6.France has got its own engine Snecma M-88 which is already partnering with Kaveri engine , if Rafale is selected , then there can  be single supply chain for engines as Rafale is ready to induct kaveri also into the Rafale after developing it and this will lead to standardization of inventory which Indian air force now understand and also want to follow. We have seen during war times that how difficult it become to maintain and manage supplies and that get further aggravated when we have multiple inventories to maintain.

7. France has got vast amount of working weapons and they are generally known as "the kings of Submarines". this deal will really put the Doors open for joint working on the most advance projects.

8. France is ready to induct and modify avionics currently on board with the one India wants( basically the Israeli one- the best in its class). They are even ready to share source code for there most potential weapons like the Aesa . This going to be never allowed on the US one as they never want to see a product comparable in strength to the one in us service. Mig-35 , gripen and Eurofigher are ready for this.

9. Rafale is a twin engine fighter , though its operation cost is more but they make it highly reliable since there is always a back up engine , if one fails along with more thrust and range.

10.Rafale has got the maximum no of Hard points around 14 to carry weapons which makes it a very tactical choice for weapon delivery .

11.Rafale is omni role fighter meaning it can work from the sea on aircraft carrier also this is something unique about it which is only there in Superhornet. This has got a very big Strategic as well as tactical implication. The adversary will never know from where the Rafale will attack, sea route or the Western border.

12.Rafale is already battlefield tested , currently most of them are taking up various missions, this generally give the maturity to the birds design and strategies around it. 

13. Its easier to deal with France then with US or Russia.

14. There already exist supply chain for Mirage, so lot of investment can be saved which is required to built the new supply chain and MRO facility incase other than rafale or Mig-35 is selected.

15. Rafale has a more bit of stealth using some software technique. At least that can help us in our LCA. 

16. Rafale has very high service ceiling(55000 Ft) as compared to other competitors ,this is very much required as our adversaries battle fields are at high altitude. Eurofighter has a highest service ceiling of 65000Ft but its way to expensive.

All these points really make Rafale a well deserve candidate for the MMRCA contract and a good candidate for Indian Airforce. But this is not all some issues are still there which need to be settled and since French pride is at stake, we can definitely clinch a good deal. For french, MMRCA contract means a lot . All biggies are in the competition, even though every body knows Indians are very demanding and this contract will take a lot more time to happen but still they are there why? because everybody knows If India selects something, its become a norm in the market , that means a big commercial success, see what happened to MIG-21, sukhoi-30 MKI, mirage. They become a big commercial success once India accepted them for there service. So everybody knows if they are able to get MMRCA deal, definitely order from other country will follow as there case will become strong. From Rafale point of view Indian MMRCA  is a do or die situation, they need it at any cost and thats why i firmly believe if India can negotiate for price , France will surely reduce the per unit cost at least by 5 million to 10 million. This is really possible as the per unit cost of rafale is high since they are considering the Development cost along with the delivery cost. If france is able to part away some of development cost which runs to $30bn, the cost might come to $55 to $66 million per piece, which is legitimate for a twin engine. 

Thus i firmly believe, rafale has got the maximum no of advantage for the Indian MMRCA and it will be WIN-WIN situation for both the party. Surely US politics , curb on technology and old Russian Friendship will be a big road block for Rafale to succeed. Lets see how its develops over the next two years. But this will truly expose the functioning of Indian defence dealers as it will tell how indians award defence deals i.e  under pressure or best fit. Do add your comments .

Thanks

Prashant Singhal

Secret Deal Between US and Pakistan led to Babur and than to Nirbhay for India.

Pakistan Launched Babur Cruise Missile in response to India's Brahmos. The world was stunned as a nation which doesn't have neither the capacity nor the capability to built a car or a plane , how it can built a such a highly sophisticated system. Moreover the missile flight path correction method employed uses GPS, TERCOM,DSMAC, INS which in itself are sort of highly classified and sophisticated technology requiring many years of research and large amount of investment. Moreover , technically speaking the Software and hardware expertise need to develop Tercom and Dsmac is very complex and can only be done when one already has large amount of experience in data integration , data fusion and data mining and that too in real time where the response time need to be less then Milli seconds. For example , all the terrain mappings and images are already there in on board Database of the missile. Making and marking of this image require complex algorithm along with large set of satelight imagery which Pakistan doesn't posses as of now. Then the hardware required to compare the database images to the images captured by missile on board camera while cruising are compared and the flight path is corrected for any deviation . The path which missile has to trace for reaching to the target is preloaded into the memory of the missile. This information is very huge as it hold data not only in path length but also in altitude, since cruise missile are terrain hugging to remain stealth from ground based radars. Doing this processing requires complex algorithm with too many optimizations which are not found in common software editors thus which further requires specialized editor development which is a long process. Also the hardware required to do this sort of calculation is very demanding. 

This is a highly classified information from some source ( please don't ask me "show facts" , source etc, etc" if it bothers you, that better don't read further) . The classified information is that when Indians are in negotiations with Russians on the Yakhonts (now Brahmos), Pakistan was quite worried. They were searching world over there options for a counter to cruise. Since cruise technology is very complex and only 2-3 nations were able to develop it at that time , there effort went futile. There was no match for cruise. But at the same time US war in Iraq and Afghanistan was at its peak, US was more interested to concentrate on Iraq at that point , thinking to put on hold the afghan war for sometime. To do that, they require some local power near Afghanistan to take hold of situation. Moreover , great collaboration and support was required to tackle the Afghan mess since only the pak border was the most porous one and the likely hood of afghan people and Taliban fleeing into Pakistan. US asked Pakistan for support and go against there old friends. Initially Pakistan was not interested in this as this will lead to lot of internal disturbance along with possibility of local criticism of going pro Americans. 

The Americans understood this and then they brought there old theory of aid, diplomacy and pressure. US threatened Pakistan to be an ally or to be ready to get destroyed like afghan. President Musharraf understand the consequence of saying no so he started making the public opinion pro US . US was quite happy to see this development but then Musharraf asked for some very classified military technology in the name of going against the principles on which Pakistan was made. Various weapons was asked but at the end two deals was done first green signal for F-16 block 52 with spares for the old one which got baned after 1998 nuclear test. Second was the crucial Tomahawk missile. Though the version given was not the latest but was having 1000 km range. US already knew that by giving such weapons also there are no chances of Pakistan becoming there potential adversary anytime soon. 

Pakistan stunned the world when they tested it for the first time , but to seem more realistic and to save world finger pointing of copy, they decided to declare it as a 500 km weapon which actually was 1000 km at that time and declared that future version will be developed to 1000 km. Full technology was given with seekers and software coming directly from US. All those news , missile technology stolen from the four unexploded tomahawk missile in Pakistan was just the propaganda to make things unclear and let the people guess. India was always aware of this as most of the world secret are always known to most big nations through there secret services route, but they don't speak of that in public. India took the matter to US in the name "shift of balance of power".  But nothing happened except some of there concerns were noted. 

 After two years , when Iraq wars was already over, and Us concentrating only in Afghan. The Ties between India and US started entering the synergy phase. With lot of NRI's lobbying at the US for India, US make a shift in its position towards India. They started considering India as a suitable contender for the growing china's influence in the subcontinent which posses as an adversary to to US allies.US wanted to put the improvement of relations with India on fast track , But only hurdle was India not signatory to many treaties which are mandatory to be a US ally like the CTBT etc. But seeing India's reservation on many points , they again brought there theory of Aid, diplomacy and pressure. India also accepted many things for which until now they have a serious reservation like the signing of CTBT, helping US in its fight against Taliban like overhauling of its war ships in India on there route to Pakistan, usage of there bases for strategic strikes. 

India in return got 

1. US changes of position towards India on many strategic global issues. Like exclusive Nuclear deal for which many nations were totally against as India is not a CTBT signatory.

2. Permission on sale of weapons which was not offered before. 

3. Joint working on many secret project to contain china.

4. Same deal of Tomahawks cruise missile, which was given to Pakistan with 1000km range. India will be putting this forth to public by the end of 2009 or starting 2010 with the name " Nirbhay cruise missile". 

5. Total intelligence sharing on information related to India(this happened after Mumbai attack). 

But all this is coming together when both sides have compromised there earlier tough position towards each other, like India has accepted signing CTBT within coming years. But they have not come public on this, once elections are done than you will see this issue in limelight and India finally signing it. This might also result in US lifting Yearly monitoring of its weapons given to India and allowing partial transfer of Technology for some components for the 126 MMRCA fighter plane contract like Aesa. 

Man, somuch politics happens at higher levels and we common people just spend thousands of hours commenting on a piece of information which could have been passed just as a propaganda. Please comment on the article if you liked it.

Thanks

Prashant Singhal

LCA Tejas - True Symbol of India's Progress.

India is progressing by all leap and bounds and so does our tejas, India's sole home grown fighter plane on which we are working for so many years. Some calls it our pride, some calls it pure crab, other calls it our future, some call it dead, but whatever you call it, Tejas will always remain very close to the heart of every Indian defence enthusiast who only start his day by praying for its own Fighter.  

Tejas is a very big moral booster not only for Indian but even for it prime enemy "Pakistan", shocked... just go to any defence forum of pakistan, the moment you mention LCA , they get full energised, they take its delay as a excuse to convince themselves about the incapability's of its big neighbour. For them India is a shit country that cannot create anything except some call center executives. For them India is just a bubble of over hype created by Indians only. Whereas for India the response is a mixed one, some call it a pure waste of Tax payer money because they personally believe India can't make such a niche technology by its own, they just forget that somebody has to start at some point to be able to make it possible.  Some think we can make it but surely it will take time due to sophisticated technology involved which are further severed by Indian Political intervention.

But really looking at the strategic level its a must and a well rewarding beginning for the future super power in the making. Experts truly believe, Tejas has opened all shortfalls and negatives in the Indian Legacy system of R&d projects of government. Though the project is delayed but it has helped India to push it out of the bound of old management style of handling complex and technology niche projects. Now the Government talks of Time lines, quality, within budget and all those jargon's which were alien in the past. and this is called a mark shift in the approach. I am my self always being a technology person and have worked on various complex projects and i truly believed every thing is achieve able just require a right approach and a will to do it. Many of us just get afraid of thinking about Americans bombs and missile and use to think we can never be like them but see now even china with a development phase of two decade has reached to the level of challenging US. Though every body know china will never succeed, reason is simple, they are going all alone against the world with just a glimpse of success. Just by testing few bombs and missile , they are wondering they can easily take on the world. Just have you ever seen how they treat India in defence as if we don't exist or we are like a small country like Nigeria or Syria which will finish in a day of invasion.  But strategically speaking , India is more power full reason being able to have a friendly relation with all major countries and its success in able to project itself as a counter to china . But the time will tell whether china achieve anything out of this ferocious and insane madness of strength showing. But i strongly believe , china will never be able to be make itself as a leader of the world like the USA because of there 3rd class attitude towards other.

See India has not become the 2nd  contender of "super power" tittle  without any reason , after the nuclear test of 1998 , under the sanction of the world which mainly aimed at containing India by stoping all cooperative programs and that also include LCA . Lockheed Martin , the maker of F-22 Raptor and F-16 was jointly doing the testing of the air frame for lca with India completely dependent on there modesty to share the know how. But after sanction every thing was stopped. the engineers working there in USA were paraded outside the LM complex and all there equipments and designs were seized by there Government. But then one person, dont want to name him, pledged that we will do it on our own . We didn't have the infrastructure to do the basic test or even the development but the will of that person made all odds in too India's favour. We developed the whole infrastructure , all tools and kits. What you see US and Russian plane taking flight so easily is not just one manufacturing marvel, its just a product of their being in the field for 80 years. For instance US has 65 years of ( infrastructure + Tools+ testing facility+ domain knowledge and experience ). they now just have to repackage with some more R&d and modification to bring out a new niche product and you know what , in the last 2 decades we were leveling that gap. Now what you people see today is only the delays of 20 years but you don't see now we have ( infrastructure+tools + testing facility along with most important thing experience people). The world have realised that India can do on its own. Just see the attitude change of the foreign defence firms , they are now ready to partner also along with sharing of technology. Those who believe that just because of money India have, these company are ready to partner, they are wrong. There are many countries which have money like Arabs, UAE, Australia , these companies are ready to provide them weapons but know how of there development secrets - never. Today Boeing and LM are fighting with there US government bosses to allow them to go for full technology transfer for there 126 MMRCA contract with the reason that if they don't provide it also then anyway they will be able to develop them by themselves. See this is more like a report card of India's achievement for there efforts to go indigenous. 

Isn't you also feel that LCA is also among various reason that has paid us in many other forms to make India a new rising star. Please comment on what you think about it. Jai Hind

From

Prashant Singhal