Why Rafale has the best chance in MMRCA deal.

Is the pride of french people at stake for there very own fighter Rafale, probably yes because the way it was conceived and developed itself shows how french were emotional about it. french people are considered one of the best designers of architecture and they have got there own test for which they feel proud also. Other call this as there arrogance. When Euro fighter was perceived, France was a major partner in the collaborative effort between 4 European countries. France wanted to play the role of major airframe designer and wanted many things in there own way. They are simply to possessive about it. They wanted to make a design which can function simultaneously both from land as well as sea for which other were not interested. They simply pulled out of the collaboration and decided to go on there own. A sort of natural competition therefore came into picture as they now have to prove all alone that there thing is better than Euro fighter. French worked very harder to came out with a very fine piece of bird and so does the Euro fighter. But that possessiveness about there design has costed a lot to the France. They spend nearly more than $30bn in its development. Though Eurofighter is almost double the cost but that cost is share among various participants of the contract. With more collaboration and joint effort, Eurofighter definitely have edge over Rafale but that edge is not very vast and is something that can be bridged with more investment. That further investment in R&D was perceived to be taken up with the money earned from the exports and that changed the whole game plan.

Till today , Rafale is not able to sell even one aircraft as export order which has hindered its future development. The people involved are very much frustrated as after putting so much effort ,there work is not yet acclaimed. Though there is nothing wrong in the design but you can simply call a bad luck as whenever a contract is there to grab , rafale easily make it to the last round but then beyond technology , political things also come into picture where US simply leads the pact. Due to lack of order , manufacturing is also slow and in few years will eventually dry up . The cost is also therefore very high per unit since "volume of scale" are missing . Currently many deals are in the pipeline and rafale is there in all as a final contestant.France is pushing very hard to get something out of it since there investment  and pride are at stake. 

Now why Rafale is the most probable contestant for the much awaited, hyped and long lasting 126 fighter MMRCA contract. 

1. India is very happy with there existing Mirage 2000.

2.They need a plane which can be inducted as soon as possible since there exiting squadron fleet is depleting very rapidly and have reached an alarming level. Since rafale does not have any order , they will be able to fulfill India's requirement easily which is major drawback with other as they already have deliveries schedule for the existing orders.

3. India need full Transfer of technology which is only met by non US participant, and out of them rafale is ready to go most farthest level of sharing along with source code. 

4. Since rafale is a france completely own effort with no US based component, effect of sanctions and restriction is not there. Thus making it a more strategic choice apart from tactical one.

5. It has some of the most advanced sensors and equipment on board like spectra ,Aesa etc but the main thing is we will be getting the technology transfer from them also which no body except Mig-35 is ready to deliver, But then Mig-35 Zhuk still in development and Gripen no where near to a working radar of its own , rafale seems to be a best tactical choice since that come with a more mature and tested thing . If US government get ready to remove bar on technology transfer for Aesa, then probably the whole game can change but as of now that doesnt seems to be the case. 

6.France has got its own engine Snecma M-88 which is already partnering with Kaveri engine , if Rafale is selected , then there can  be single supply chain for engines as Rafale is ready to induct kaveri also into the Rafale after developing it and this will lead to standardization of inventory which Indian air force now understand and also want to follow. We have seen during war times that how difficult it become to maintain and manage supplies and that get further aggravated when we have multiple inventories to maintain.

7. France has got vast amount of working weapons and they are generally known as "the kings of Submarines". this deal will really put the Doors open for joint working on the most advance projects.

8. France is ready to induct and modify avionics currently on board with the one India wants( basically the Israeli one- the best in its class). They are even ready to share source code for there most potential weapons like the Aesa . This going to be never allowed on the US one as they never want to see a product comparable in strength to the one in us service. Mig-35 , gripen and Eurofigher are ready for this.

9. Rafale is a twin engine fighter , though its operation cost is more but they make it highly reliable since there is always a back up engine , if one fails along with more thrust and range.

10.Rafale has got the maximum no of Hard points around 14 to carry weapons which makes it a very tactical choice for weapon delivery .

11.Rafale is omni role fighter meaning it can work from the sea on aircraft carrier also this is something unique about it which is only there in Superhornet. This has got a very big Strategic as well as tactical implication. The adversary will never know from where the Rafale will attack, sea route or the Western border.

12.Rafale is already battlefield tested , currently most of them are taking up various missions, this generally give the maturity to the birds design and strategies around it. 

13. Its easier to deal with France then with US or Russia.

14. There already exist supply chain for Mirage, so lot of investment can be saved which is required to built the new supply chain and MRO facility incase other than rafale or Mig-35 is selected.

15. Rafale has a more bit of stealth using some software technique. At least that can help us in our LCA. 

16. Rafale has very high service ceiling(55000 Ft) as compared to other competitors ,this is very much required as our adversaries battle fields are at high altitude. Eurofighter has a highest service ceiling of 65000Ft but its way to expensive.

All these points really make Rafale a well deserve candidate for the MMRCA contract and a good candidate for Indian Airforce. But this is not all some issues are still there which need to be settled and since French pride is at stake, we can definitely clinch a good deal. For french, MMRCA contract means a lot . All biggies are in the competition, even though every body knows Indians are very demanding and this contract will take a lot more time to happen but still they are there why? because everybody knows If India selects something, its become a norm in the market , that means a big commercial success, see what happened to MIG-21, sukhoi-30 MKI, mirage. They become a big commercial success once India accepted them for there service. So everybody knows if they are able to get MMRCA deal, definitely order from other country will follow as there case will become strong. From Rafale point of view Indian MMRCA  is a do or die situation, they need it at any cost and thats why i firmly believe if India can negotiate for price , France will surely reduce the per unit cost at least by 5 million to 10 million. This is really possible as the per unit cost of rafale is high since they are considering the Development cost along with the delivery cost. If france is able to part away some of development cost which runs to $30bn, the cost might come to $55 to $66 million per piece, which is legitimate for a twin engine. 

Thus i firmly believe, rafale has got the maximum no of advantage for the Indian MMRCA and it will be WIN-WIN situation for both the party. Surely US politics , curb on technology and old Russian Friendship will be a big road block for Rafale to succeed. Lets see how its develops over the next two years. But this will truly expose the functioning of Indian defence dealers as it will tell how indians award defence deals i.e  under pressure or best fit. Do add your comments .

Thanks

Prashant Singhal